• How many COVID deaths will there be in the United States in July, as reported by Our World In Data on August 5?
• Will an AI music generator be reported to have a least a million users before August 1?
• Will Barbara Kingsolver's book Demon Copperhead win the 2023 Pulitzer prize for fiction?
• What will the price of Tether be on August 1 in USD? [v2]
• What is the most compute that will be used to train an open-source language model released before August 1?
• Will Prince Andrew attend King Charles's coronation?
• What will be the average Brier score of all the teams on binary questions?
• Will legislation that has the primary purpose of regulating AI be passed by at least one house of Congress before August 1?
• Will an AI that beats the top 1% of humans in Diplomacy be announced before August 1?
• Will Deepmind announce Gato 2 before August 1?
• Will the team with the best Brier score on binary questions be the same as the team with the best logarithmic score on binary questions?
• Will GPT-4 score better than any of the OPTIC teams on binary questions?
• Will Oppenheimer make more money than Barbie on opening weekend?
• Will the 2023 Tour de France be won by a rider who has never won before?
• Will Sam Bankman-Fried plead guilty to any federal felonies before August 1?
• Will at least 5 countries approve the R21 malaria vaccine before August 1?
• Will Israel pass a law allowing the Knesset to overturn rulings of the judiciary before August 1?
• Will a ceasefire be announced for the Russo-Ukrainian war by August 1?
• What will be the maximum estimated probability of a nuclear weapon being used in 2023 by August 1, in percents?
• Will South Korea be elected to the UN Security council in 2023?