Hey! We’re posting this update as ACX Forecasting Mini-Grants begins the retroactive evaluation period. A quick timeline:

• We ran a pilot, intercollegiate forecasting competition in April 2023. It went really well!
• We wrote a (detailed) postmortem on the pilot competition in May 2023.
• We kept working on OPTIC over the summer, and have a lot of plans for the future (some specifics are below).

Rachel & Austin wanted all of the projects to answer the questions below. If you want the details on the pilot competition, check out the postmortem, but it doesn’t include our future plans.

We’d also be happy to meet — online or in person! Reach out to [email protected], or come chat with us at Manifest. Tom is based in the Bay, Jingyi is based in Boston, and Saul is in the Bay for September and Boston for October.

1. How much money have you spent so far? Have you gotten more funding from other sources? Do you need more funding?

   Answers detailed in the table below. We received funding from Manifund and the Long Term Future Fund (LTFF).

   	Total	Manifund	LTFF
   Original Funding	6001	3901	2100
   Used	2208
   Committed*	3000
   Leftover	792

   *The prize money has not yet been given out, but has been committed — it’s sitting in our bank account waiting to go to the winners.

   Our original Manifund project was funded to run a pilot, intercollegiate forecasting competition. This original, pilot competition doesn’t need more funding — it’s already been completed — but OPTIC as an organization has expanded. We’re seeking funding to run additional competitions and help support forecasting clubs. We are likely to have a moderate through a corporate sponsor and some forecasting organizations, and have pending applications more funding through Open Philanthropy, the Long-Term Future Fund, and Manifund. We also applied to Lightspeed and received no funding.

2. How is the project going? (a few paragraphs)

   1. The pilot went well (see the postmortem for a detailed account), and we’re planning to run 2-4 tournaments in the fall. (This is dependent primarily on funding & high-quality hires.)
   2. We’ve adjusted the mission of OPTIC from purely running forecasting competitions to generally promoting collegiate forecasting. At this point, that means expanding our reach to support about 2-4 forecasting clubs this semester, and more in future semesters. We’re providing fiscal support (fundraising now!), organizational mentorship, instructional content, and outreach materials.

3. How well has your project gone compared to where you expected it to be at this point? (Score from 1-10, 10 = Better than expected)

   1. Our scoring rule:
      1. 1 = much worse than expected
      2. 5 = exactly as expected
      3. 10 = much better than expected
   2. Average response: 7.83
      1. Saul’s response: 8
      2. Tom’s response: 8
      3. Jingyi’s response: 7.5

4. Are there any remaining ways you need help, besides more funding?

   1. Yes! We need:
      1. competitors! Sign up on our website :)
      2. organizers! We’re running competitions in the fall in at least Boston and the Bay Area, and potentially DC and London. We’re bottlenecked on local organizing capacity, and finding good organizers will determine which we can run.
      3. speakers/panelists! We are still looking for speakers/panelists, especially for the non-Bay Area competitions.

5. Any other thoughts or feedback?

   1. Nothing other than gratitude toward Rachel, Austin, and Scott for setting this up :)